IRIDeS NEWs

2019.3.8

Public Relations Office Column "Forecasting"

Head, Public Relations Office
Kiyoshi Ito
Deputy Director and Professor of IRIDeS

2019 is the last year of the Heisei period (in the Japanese calendar). Exactly 50 years ago, in 1969, humankind landed on the moon for the first time through the Apollo space program. Those days were the peak of confidence in science, and it was thought that in 50 years human beings would certainly be living on the moon and earthquakes and disasters would be predicted as a matter of course. As you can see, the result is that we are reminded each year how natural phenomena are profoundly beyond human control and knowledge. Moreover, 30 years ago, in 1989, was the beginning of Heisei, with the stock market at its highest value in history and Japanese economy reaching its peak. The word “bubble” was given in retrospect. In those days, people in it, including myself, were all ecstatic believing that the economic boom would last forever. Prediction is impossible even for familiar events such as human economic activity. It was also the year that the Berlin Wall collapsed, an event that nobody expected. Speaking of expectations, 1999 was regarded as the year the Earth would be destroyed and met its unprecedented end after a century of predictions deemed the “Prophecies of Nostradamus,” but naturally, nothing happened.
 

Eight years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake, an enormous disaster that it is said to happen only once in 1,000 years. This disaster made people realize how difficult it is to predict these types of events; therefore, an approach that involves mitigating the effects of a natural disaster was adopted throughout the country in and effort to flexibly cope with the next disaster, which is absolutely possible, and to reduce its damage. However, there are two years left until the end of the government's 10-year reconstruction period (end of March 2021). Although the development of the difficult aspects is almost complete, from now on, the results of the easy aspects are important, such as passing down memories and lessons learned from disaster
survivors and victims.
 

Torahiko Terada, an authority in physics and seismology and also known as an essayist, says, “It is easy to be too afraid or not afraid at all, but to be duly afraid is rather difficult." To be properly afraid, it is essential to communicate accurate information, knowledge, and lessons that are easy to understand. In the public relations office, we will continue to disseminate information domestically and internationally while considering this perspective. As the saying goes, "The today you lived in vain is the tomorrow that the person who died yesterday so wished to live.” While praying for those who have passed away because of earthquakes and disasters, we, who are alive, should all together think about what we can do to prepare for future disasters and what kind of work can be done.
 


For inquiries, please contact IRIDeS PR Office at +81-22-752-2049 or email: koho-office*irides.tohoku.ac.jp (* needs to be replaced with @).

 

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